CRUZ, J.V., BRANDÃO, R.M., ANDRADE, C., COUTINHO, R. (2023) - Monitorização hidrogeoquímica de vulcões ativos na ilha de São Miguel (Açores, Portugal): previsão utilizando modelos de Box-Jenkins. Livro de Resumos do XI Congresso Nacional de Geologia, Portugal, 267-268.​

​Hydromineral discharges associated with active volcanic systems in the Azores have been monitored for more than three decades as a contribution to the volcanic surveillance in the archipelago. For that purpose, the definition of the background baseline for the several physico-chemical parameters and elemental composition analyzed in selected groundwater discharges is rather important, as any exceedances maybe interpreted as a sign of volcanic unrest. The present work demonstrates the use of Box-Jenkins forecast models in the treatment of data collected over a decade (2012 - 2022) at the central volcanoes of Fogo and Furnas (São Miguel). Box-Jenkins models like ARIMA(p,d,q) and SARIMA(p,d,q)x(P,D,Q)S were fitted, allowing the forecast of values for the subsequent 10 months. Results shows that with this type of models is possible to predict the hydrogeochemical background parameters in the short term, thus allowing the identification of outliers that exceed the confidence intervals, that subsequently can be interpreted as associated to volcanic unrest.