Local weather perturbations and global climatic effects resulting from large explosive volcanic eruptions have already been widely studied over the last decades, although it has also been recognized that atmospheric conditions (e.g. wind and precipitation) exert a strong control on plume dispersal, therefore playing an important role on the transport and deposition of tephra, with major socio-economic impacts, including widespread disruption of air traffic (Mazzocchi et al., 2010). It is also known that the climate variability in the North Atlantic is influenced by a few large-scale patterns or modes of variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which affect the environment and society in multiple ways (Hernandez et al., 2017).Azores Islands, have been recognized among the most vulnerable to climate change and climate extremes (Nurse et al., 2014, Hernandez et al.,2016), and being an active volcanic region, the possibility of future eruptions should not be underestimated. The impact of an explosive eruption in the Azores would be devastating, with long-term consequences to the local community and regional economy. Moreover, it is well known that volcanic ash clouds can cause widespread disruption to aviation due to the serious detrimental effect ash has on jet engines. For that reason, it is crucial to evaluate the role of atmospheric patterns in ash dispersal across the North Atlantic region.
Simulations of future eruptions and elaboration of relevant eruptive scenarios are essential. Additionally, we purpose to investigate the variability of atmospheric conditions or NAO patterns in the Azores region, in order to understand 1) the influence of atmospheric conditions in tephra transport and deposition, and 2) the impact of atmospheric conditions in volcanic hazard and consequences to air traffic.